Cape Girardeau, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

677
FXUS63 KPAH 291053
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
553 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms return this
  afternoon into tonight, with a few showers and storms
  lingering into Friday across the east.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible late this
  afternoon and evening, primarily across southeast Missouri,
  far southern Illinois and far west Kentucky. Damaging winds
  are the main hazard, but a tornado can`t be ruled out.
  Torrential downpours could also lead to a localized flooding
  concern.

- A warming trend commences this weekend and continues through
  next week with highs warming back into the 80s. Mainly dry
  conditions are forecast through at least Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

High clouds and patchy fog have been observed across much of the
Quad State region this morning with visibilities around 2 to 5
miles. The visibilities are expected to improve around or just after
sunrise.

The main forecast concern for this forecast issuance will be the
potential for strong to severe storms to develop this afternoon,
mainly across SEMO, far southern IL and far western KY. These
showers and storms will be associated with shortwave energy over the
Plains states this morning. This shortwave is expected to shift east
and dig southeastward through MO and into the Quad State region by
late this afternoon. The shortwave is then expected to traverse the
entire area overnight into early Friday morning before exiting off
to the east. At the surface, a low pressure system is set to try to
organize as the shortwave sharpens over the Quad State area around
or just after midnight. The increased forcing and instability with
the two features will allow for widespread showers and thunderstorm
to develop very late this afternoon and especially tonight.

As far as the severe weather potential goes, it still looks to be
very marginal across our CWA. Overall instability is expected to be
around or less than 1000 J/kg confined largely to SEMO (near the AR
border) and in western KY (near the TN border). Those locations
would see the greatest risk of severe weather late this afternoon
into early this evening. Shear will be supportive of severe weather
with shear vectors progged to be around 35-40kts out of the west.
Mid-level lapse rates still look poor with this system, which still
limits the overall hail concern. Damaging winds and perhaps a low-
end threat of a tornado will be the main concerns, along with heavy
downpours. Most locations will end up seeing around a half inch to
one inch of rainfall out of this system; however, isolated totals
could be as high as one to two inches by Friday morning. PWATs push
up to around 125% of normal or around 1.5 inches as the system
approaches western KY, so that area may end up seeing some of the
greater rainfall rates/totals.

The trough will gradually shifts off to the east of the area through
the weekend; however, it may still be close enough to touch off a
few showers and storms Saturday afternoon and again Sunday
afternoon, mainly over the Pennyrile into southwest IN. The chance
looks to be fairly low around 20% right now. After the trough shifts
east, another trough is expected to dig in across the western CONUS
as ridging builds across the central and eastern CONUS. This will
lead to temperatures warming into the 80s through the middle of next
week while keeping conditions mainly dry. The next low pressure
system an associated cold front is progged to pass through the area
toward Wednesday into Thursday of next week, bringing the next
chance for showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 539 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

An upper-level system will push through the area later this
afternoon and tonight, bringing showers and thunderstorms to
each of the TAF sites. Overall instability seems to be limited,
so stuck with the Prob30 group for thunder. The best chances
will be at PAH/CGI. Otherwise, ceilings are expected to lower to
MVFR/IFR overnight into Friday morning as the rain overspreads
the area. Some reduction in vsby is possible where heavier
downpours occur.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC